Speed profile prediction model of rural roads in flat terrain in Costa Rica





geometric design consistency; operating speed prediction model; road safety, geometric design consistency


For some time, a commonly used engineering practice has been to evaluate the influence of the geometric design of roads on road safety by analyzing geometric design consistency. When evaluating geometric design consistency, it is necessary to know the operating speed profiles of the road to be analyzed. To this end, a variety of models of operating speed profiles are used, which are designed for the specific conditions of a particular region or country. For any analysis of highway geometric design, it is important to have information related to the horizontal and vertical layout of the project, as well as to the operating speed of vehicles. However, one limitation, which is often a source of error, is determining the operating speed of the vehicles. The aim of this paper is to develop models for predicting vehicle operating speed in Costa Rica by considering the characteristics of the road geometric design and of the existing vehicles. The procedure followed in the model included a series of steps, including from the analysis of the roads in the region to the development of models for predicting the speed profiles, as well as its validation. For the first time, different models are proposed for rural national routes in flat terrain in Costa Rica. The study demonstrates that the proposed equations provide for lower estimations errors, if compared to international models.



Download data is not yet available.


Abebe, M. T., & Belayneh, M. Z. (2018). Identifying and Ranking Dangerous Road Segments a Case of Hawassa-Shashemene-Bulbula Two-Lane Two-Way Rural Highway, Ethiopia. Journal of Transportation Technologies, 8(03), 151–174. https://doi.org/10.4236/jtts.2018.83009

Almeida, R., Vasconcelos, L., & Bastos Silva, A. (2018). Design Consistency Index for Two-lane Roads Based on Continuous Speed Profiles. PROMET. Traffic&Transportation, 30(2), 231–239. https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v30i2.2573

Choudhari, T., & Maji, A. (2019). Effect of Horizontal Curve Geometry on the Maximum Speed Reduction: A Driving Simulator-Based Study. Transportation in Developing Economies, 5(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40890-019-0082-8

COSEVI (Consejo de Seguridad Vial). (2020). Accidentes. https://datosabiertos.csv.go.cr/dashboards/19683/accidentes/

Dai, Y., Lyu, N., & Hu, Y. (2017, 8–10, August). Truck Speed Characteristics Analysis of Typical Highway Segments Based on GPS Data. 2017 4th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS). Banff, AB, Canada. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2017.8047817

Echaveguren, T., Henríquez, C., & Jiménez-Ramos, G. (2020). Longitudinal Acceleration Models for Horizontal Reverse Curves of Two-Lane Rural Roads. The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 15(1), 103–125. https://doi.org/10.7250/bjrbe.2020-15.463

Fitzpatrick, K., Wooldridge, M. D., Tsimhoni, O., Collins, J. M., Green, P., Bauer, K. M., Parma, K. D., Koppa, R., Harwood, D. W., Anderson, I., Krammes, R. A., & Poggioli, B. (2000). Alternative Design Consistency Rating Methods for Two-Lane Rural Highways. U. S. Department of Transportation, Final Report, FHWA-RD-99-172. https://trid.trb.org/view/691718

García-Ramírez, Y. D., & Alverca, F. (2019). Calibración de ecuaciones de velocidades de operación en carreteras rurales montañosas de dos carriles: Caso de estudio ecuatoriano. Revista Politécnica, 43(2), 37–44. https://doi.org/10.33333/rp.vol43n2.1012

García-Ramírez, Y., Zárate, B., Segarra, S., & González, J. (2017). Variación diaria y horaria de la velocidad de operación en carreteras rurales de dos carriles en el cantón Loja. Revista Politécnica, 40(1), 45–51. https://doi.org/10.33333/rp.v40i1.864

García, R. A., Delgado, D. E., & Díaz, E. E. (2012). Modelos de perfil de velocidad para evaluación de consistencia del trazado en carreteras de la provincia de Villa Clara, Cuba. Revista Ingeniería de Construcción, 27(2), 71–82. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-50732012000200005

Goralzik, A., & Vollrath, M. (2017). The Effects of Road, Driver, and Passenger Presence on Drivers’ Choice of Speed: A Driving Simulator Study. Transportation Research Procedia, 25, 2061–2075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.400

Kiran, B. N., Kumaraswamy, N., & Sashidhar, C. (2017). A Review of Road Crash Prediction Models for Developed Countries. American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2(2), 10–25. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20170202.11

Leisch, J. E., & Leisch, J. P. (1977). New Concepts in Design-Speed Application. Transportation Research Record, 631, 4–14. https://trid.trb.org/view/71966

Li, L., Gayah, V. V., & Donnell, E. T. (2017). Development of Regionalized SPFs for Two-Lane Rural Roads in Pennsylvania. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 108, 343–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.08.035

Llopis-Castelló, D., Bella, F., Camacho-Torregrosa, F. J., & García, A. (2018). New Consistency Model Based on Inertial Operating Speed Profiles for Road Safety Evaluation. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, 144(4), 04018006. https://doi.org/10.1061/jtepbs.0000126

Llopis-Castelló, D., Camacho-Torregrosa, F. J., & García, A. (2018). Calibration of the Inertial Consistency Index to Assess Road Safety on Horizontal Curves of Two-Lane Rural Roads. Accident. Analysis & Prevention, 118, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.05.014

Llopis-Castelló, D., Findley, D. J., Camacho-Torregrosa, F. J., & García, A. (2019). Calibration of Inertial Consistency Models on North Carolina Two-Lane Rural Roads. Accident. Analysis and Prevention, 127, 236–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2019.03.013

Llopis-Castelló, D., Findley, D. J., & García, A. (2020). Comparison of the Highway Safety Manual Predictive Method with Safety Performance Functions Based on Geometric Design Consistency. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2020.1738612

Llopis-Castelló, D., González-Hernández, B., Pérez-Zuriaga, A. M., & García, A. (2018). Speed Prediction Models for Trucks on Horizontal Curves of Two-Lane Rural Roads. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2672(17), 72–82. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118776111

Maji, A., Sil, G., & Tyagi, A. (2018). 85th and 98th Percentile Speed Prediction Models of Car, Light, and Heavy Commercial Vehicles for Four-Lane Divided Rural Highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, 144(5), 04018009. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000136

Maji, A., & Tyagi, A. (2018). Speed Prediction Models for Car and Sports Utility Vehicle at Locations Along Four-Lane Median Divided Horizontal Curves. Journal of Modern Transportation, 26(4), 278–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-018-0162-1

Malaghan, V., Pawar, D. S., & Dia, H. (2020). Modeling Operating Speed Using Continuous Speed Profiles on Two-Lane Rural Highways in India. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, 146(11), 04020124. https://doi.org/10.1061/jtepbs.0000447

Robertson, D. H., Hummer, J. E., & Nelson, D. C. (1994). Spot Speed Studies. In Manual of Transportation Engineering Studies. Institute of Transportation Engineers.

Saleem, T., & Persaud, B. (2017). Another Look at The Safety Effects of Horizontal Curvature on Rural Two-Lane Highways. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 106, 149–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.04.001

SIECA, S. de I. E. C. (2011). Manual centroamericano de normas para el diseño geométrico de carreteras (3.a ed.). Secretaría de Integración Económica Centroamericana. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIP.2003.1246782

Sil, G., Maji, A., Nama, S., & Maurya, A. K. (2019). Operating Speed Prediction Model as a Tool for Consistency Based Geometric Design of Four-Lane Divided Highways. Transport, 34(4), 425–436. https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2019.10715

Sil, G., Nama, S., Maji, A., & Maurya, A. K. (2018, January 7–11). The 85th Percentile Speed Prediction Model for Four-Lane Divided Highways in Ideal Free Flow Condition [Paper], 18–23. Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting, Washington DC, United States. https://trid.trb.org/view/1495476

Wilches, F. J., Burbano, J. L. A., & Sierra, E. E. C. (2020). Vehicle Operating Speeds in Southwestern Colombia: An Important Database for The Future Implementation of Optimization Models for Geometric Design of Roads in Mountain Topography. Data in Brief, 32, 106210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106210

Xu, J., Lin, W., & Shao, Y. (2017). New Design Method for Horizontal Alignment of Complex Mountain Highways Based on “Trajectory-Speed” Collaborative Decision. Advances in Mechanical Engineering, 9(4), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814017695437

Xu, J., Lin, W., Wang, X., & Shao, Y. M. (2017). Acceleration and Deceleration Calibration of Operating Speed Prediction Models for Two-Lane Mountain Highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 143(7), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000050



How to Cite

Delgado Martínez, D. E., Medina García, L., Ulate Zárate, J. M., & García Depestre, R. A. (2021). Speed profile prediction model of rural roads in flat terrain in Costa Rica. Enfoque UTE, 12(2), pp. 52 - 68. https://doi.org/10.29019/enfoqueute.732