Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678

Keywords:

SARS-CoV-2;, Corona virus;, Modeling;, Simulation;, SIR Model

Abstract

In Ecuador, in the Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, a Special Operations Committee (SOC) was created to take containment measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research deals with an analysis of the possible spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus causing the infectious disease caused by new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model as a prediction method according to the rigor of the containment measures evaluated. with the acceptability of people through a survey (95 %, CI) in which three parameters (α) severity of containment measures, (k) social impact of the pandemic and (β) transmission rate, are determined, which we then used as β (t) with initial value of β = 1. All this considering the rapid proliferation of the virus in the province and having an average of α = 3.23 (95 % CI: 3 - 4) and for k = 4.10 (95 % CI: 4 - 5) that the authorities will use to mitigate the spread of the virus, as well as future outbreaks of the disease.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Castro P, De los Reyes, J. C., González S, Merino P y Ponce J. (2020). Modelización y simulación de la propagación del virus SARS-CoV-2 en Ecuador. Centro de Modelización Matemática en Áreas Clave para el Desarrollo, MODEMAT. Recuperado el 11 de abril 2020, de https://bit.ly/3ivLyNm

GadStoDgo. (2020). Se suspenden los eventos masivos a nivel del Ecuador para evitar propagación del Coronavirus. Gobernación de la Provincia de Santo Domingo. Recuperado el 13 de marzo 2020, de https://bit.ly/3bZXV1u

Guan, W., Ni, Z., Hu, Y., Liang, W., Ou, C., He, J., Liu, L., Shan, H., Lei, C., Hui, D. S. C., Du, B., Li, L., Zeng, G., Yuen, K.-Y., Chen, R., Tang, C., Wang, T., Chen, P., Xiang, J., … Zhong, N. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(18), 1708–1720. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Huang Ch, Y. W. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5

Imai, N, Cori, A, Dorigatti, I, Baguelin, M, Donnelly, C, Riley, S, & Ferguson, N. (2020). Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. Imperial College London. https://doi.org/10.25561/77148

INEC. (2010). Resultados del Censo 2010 de población y vivienda en el Ecuador. Fascículo provincial Santo Domingo. Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos. Recuperado el 14 de marzo 2020, de https://bit.ly/3mnjONl

INEC. (2020). Empleo-diciembre 2019. Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos. Recuperado el 14 de marzo 2020, de https://bit.ly/33ppVbi

Lauer, S. A., Grantz, K. H., Bi, Q., Jones, F. K., Zheng, Q., Meredith, H. R., Azman, A. S., Reich, N. G., y Lessler, J. (2020). The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 172(9), 577–582. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504

Li, G., Wang, W., y Jin, Z. (2006). Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 30(4), 1012–1019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2005.09.024

Li, R., Pei, S., Chen, B., Song, Y., Zhang, T., Yang, W., & Shaman, J. (2020). Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Science, 368(6490), 489–493. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221

Lin, Q., Zhao, S., Gao, D., Lou, Y., Yang, S., Musa, S. S., Wang, M. H., Cai, Y., Wang, W., Yang, L., & He, D. (2020). A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 211–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058

Martínez Ortega, R. M., Tuya Pendás, L. C., Martínez Ortega, M., Pérez Abreu, A., & Cánovas, A. M. (2009). El coeficiente de correlación de los rangos de Spearman. Caracterización. Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas, 8(2), 0–0. https://bit.ly/3khZV8A

OMS. (2020). Preguntas y respuestas sobre la enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19). Organización Mundial de la Salud. Recuperado el 15 de marzo 2020, de https://bit.ly/3hvLYli

SNGR. (2020). Informes de Situación e Infografías – COVID 19 – desde el 29 de Febrero del 2020. Sistema Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos. Recuperado el 13 de marzo 2020, de https://bit.ly/2RqGA8G

Wang, D., Hu, B., Hu, C., Zhu, F., Liu, X., Zhang, J., Wang, B., Xiang, H., Cheng, Z., Xiong, Y., Zhao, Y., Li, Y., Wang, X., & Peng, Z. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA, 323(11), 1061–1069. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.1585

Wu, D., Wu, T., Liu, Q., & Yang, Z. (2020). The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: What we know. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 94, 44–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.004

Wu, J. T., Leung, K., & Leung, G. M. (2020). Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study. The Lancet, 395(10225), 689–697. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9

Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W., Li, X., Yang, B., Song, J., Zhao, X., Huang, B., Shi, W., Lu, R., Niu, P., Zhan, F., Ma, X., Wang, D., Xu, W., Wu, G., Gao, G. F., & Tan, W. (2020). A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(8), 727–733. https://d

Downloads

Published

2020-10-01

How to Cite

Mora Murillo, M. F., Mora Murillo, W. A. ., & Pandey, D. (2020). Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador. Enfoque UTE, 11(4), pp. 101 – 115. https://doi.org/10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 4 (2020)

Section

Miscellaneous

License

Copyright (c) 2020 Enfoque UTE

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.

The authors retain all copyrights ©.

  • The authors retain their trademark and patent rights, as well as rights to any process or procedure described in the article.
  • The authors retain the right to share, copy, distribute, perform, and publicly communicate the article published in Enfoque UTE (for example, post it in an institutional repository or publish it in a book), provided that acknowledgment of its initial publication in Enfoque UTE is given.
  • The authors retain the right to publish their work at a later date, to use the article or any part of it (for example, a compilation of their work, lecture notes, a thesis, or for a book), provided that they indicate the source of publication (authors of the work, journal, volume, issue, and date).